After the release of the Dune: Part Three teaser trailer, the battle of the December releases seemed to be reignited. The reaction to the first-look was so strong that it had fans looking back at their movie calendars and realizing, once again, that the third Dune film releases on December 18th, the same day as another behemoth, Avengers: Doomsday. These release dates have been on the books for months, but movie fans have been expecting one to move because they’ll more than likely be vying for the same audience. As of now, neither film is budging, despite major debate on social media about how one needs to flinch.

There are pros and cons to both films keeping the date, with some thinking it could be an epic event like “Barbenheimer” where both movies will thrive, while others think, in the current state of the theatrical moviegoing, that the wealth should be spread out more to ensure that movie theaters are well fed by both blockbusters.

How did we get here? Well, Dune: Part Three staked its claim on the release date first. The week before Christmas can be truly lucrative because the holiday corridor tends to bring extra business and boost box office (just look at how The Housemaid performed during the last holiday season). Even more so than the summer movie season, the holiday stretch can make lesser films shine, and even better films into astronomical box office hits (look at the Avatar films, which have been a consistent player in the middle of the holiday rush). It’s no wonder that Warner Bros. would want this date for Dune: Part Three, especially since each film has seen box office growth that would indicate it would be a huge draw during the holidays.

The Avengers wasn’t on this date at all originally. Before the Doomsday switch, Avengers: The Kang Dynasty was set to be released in May 2025, but a series of events changed that. The Jonathan Majors controversy caused a full narrative switch, which led to the Russo Bros. returning to the Marvel fold and enlisting Robert Downey Jr. to return to the MCU not as Iron Man, but as Dr. Doom.

The directing duo would be boarding not only Avengers: Doomsday but also the follow-up, Avengers: Secret Wars, resulting in more than a few release date changes. Avengers: Doomsday, taking the place of The Kang Dynasty, ultimately shifted off of May 2025 and moved to May 2026 before moving again to its current December date that it now shares with Dune: Part Three. Once movie fans realized that these two films would be sharing the date, it was immediately assumed that Dune: Part Three would vacate, but that hasn’t happened.

Both properties have their reasons for not moving off the December date. It could be looked at as two stubborn studios not wanting to show weakness (which could be partially true), but, in the case of Dune: Part Three, it comes down to having premium screens on lock. Denis Villeneuve and his team have an exclusive three-week window on IMAX screens, which means Avengers: Doomsday will not get the benefit of that large format. Doomsday and Dune: Part Three will both get non-IMAX PLFs, but the latter is going to benefit heavily from the IMAX experience, especially since the third film was partially filmed using their prestigious cameras, and fans will want to see the sci-fi spectacle in this format because it will mean seeing it at its very best.

This is one reason why some believe Marvel Studios should shift Avengers: Doomsday because it’s essentially leaving money on the table by not having those screens available to the highly anticipated MCU release. That being said, Marvel Studios may feel that the IMAX screens won’t be necessary to ensure the success of their film. Despite concerns about the quality of some of the recent Marvel releases and diminishing box office returns, an Avengers film with a stacked ensemble that also sees the return of the original X-Men, among others, makes it an event on its own that almost guarantees box office success.

This is likely why, reportedly, Marvel has no interest in moving and is digging their heels into the sand. Also, in the battle of Barbie and Oppenheimer, Barbie didn’t have any IMAX screens while Oppenheimer did, and that film pulled in $1.447 billion globally versus th Oppenheimer’s $975 million worldwide take. However, it should be noted that of Oppenheimer’s global total, $183 million came from IMAX screens.

The fact of the matter is, the last Dune film pulled in an impressive $750 million worldwide while 2019’s Avengers: Endgame grossed a massive $2.8 billion globally. To Marvel, this is a situation where there isn’t really a competition, and this is a battle they will most certainly win. The holiday push could make the third Dune movie hit the $1 billion mark, but it can also allow Avengers: Doomsday to exceed that greatly. Even though both properties share a similar audience, they both skew heavily male; the MCU IP has more universal appeal than that of Dune.

In fact, even though both skewed more on the male side during their last opening weekends (68 percent for Dune: Part Two vs. 60 percent for Endgame), the last Avengers release had more of a female audience presence at 40 percent and appealed to a wider age range. In other words, Dune: Part Two didn’t entice as many female movie watchers, and it skewed a bit older than Avengers: Endgame, which clearly benefited from older and younger moviegoers alike.

Movie theater owners would like one to move because they feel the studios are putting their eggs in only one basket instead of spreading the wealth. Both movies will perform well, but on different dates, you could have one movie dominate perhaps over Thanksgiving, while the other takes over the holiday break surrounding Christmas.

With movie theaters still recovering, in some ways, from the global pandemic, theater owners need more blockbusters to be spread out to boost their attendance and revenue. Some of them, along with movie fans, also believe that having these two big releases stacked on the same date will diminish the box office returns of other potential hits such as Jumanji 3 (opening a week before) or Robert Eggers’ Werwulf, his follow-up to Nosferatu, opening on Christmas Day after that 2024 release enjoyed its own holiday corridor success with an $181 million worldwide gross on a $50 million budget.

With so many big movies in the marketplace, it comes down to which films get what screens and how often they will be played throughout the day. While it seems like having them all in play should be gangbusters for movie theaters, some of them will pay the price to make room for others, and let’s get it straight: they’re all making room for Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday.

Then there is the Barbenheimer of it all. That organic phenomenon that the industry wants so desperately to repeat saw two polar opposite films like Barbie and Oppenheimer, benefitting each other from moviegoers turning it into an event to see both films. Is this something that could be repeated with Dune and Doomsday? Not exactly, since they share a similar audience, but one of the benefits of neither film budging is that it could lead to a record-breaking December at the box office, and those are the kind of headlines the industry needs during a time that some are still worried about the viability of the theatrical experience. Will they bleed into each other’s audience?

More than likely, but some hardcore fans will turn seeing both movies into an ultra-long event that will benefit both films in the end. The worry seems to be that they’ll cannibalize each other in some way, but we could also see December box office traffic that we’ve never seen before. If that’s the case, it will be worth it for both movies to stay exactly where they are.

There is still a lot of time left in the calendar year, and there’s still time for either film to make a definitive release date decision, whether it’s to move or blink in the face of fear and pick another date. Whatever it comes down to, it’s something that has movie fans talking, and it has started this groundswell of sorts that works as its own farm of marketing that can only work in the favor of both movies. Perhaps this shouldn’t be looked at in terms of who should move or who will win. At the end of the day, moviegoers will be winning as both films are bound to satisfy their fanbase and still make their respective studios rich in the process.

Both Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three, for now, hit screens nationwide on Dec. 18.

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